The UK Met Office and seasonal weather models have projected a new early summer heatwave beginning June 1, 2026, with temperatures expected to reach 30C across southern England and multiple counties by mid-June.
This impending heat surge follows provisional data confirming that England and Wales just experienced their warmest spring on record between March 1 and May 31, driven by an exceptional heatwave at the end of May.
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While immediate conditions will briefly return to seasonal averages with potential thunderstorms, the GFS and ECMWF weather models indicate high pressure will rebuild.
Temperatures are forecast to exceed 28C in at least 16 counties from June 11 through June 16.
Atmospheric data shows that high pressure systems will dominate the latter half of June, bringing dry conditions to most areas.
However, southern regions face an increasing risk of heavy showers later in the month.
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El Niño and Drought Concerns
Met Office meteorologists noted that a significantly hotter than normal period extending into early August is now eight times more likely than cooler conditions due to an escalating El Niño climate pattern.
The Environment Agency announced it will convene a National Drought Group meeting in the coming weeks to assess water resource impacts.
Southern counties have received only a third of their average spring rainfall.
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Weather models project a major June heatwave across the UK following the warmest spring on record for England and Wales.
