Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will impact the Texas coastline and Southeast Texas through the Memorial Day holiday weekend.
The National Weather Service has issued extensive flood watches as saturated soils raise the risk of flash flooding.
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Coastal counties including Brazoria, Fort Bend, Galveston, Matagorda, Wharton, and Jackson are under a flood watch effective from Thursday, May 21, 2026, at 7 a.
m. until Monday morning.
Forecasters project total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the region, with some areas potentially receiving 6 to 8 inches.
Eastern sections remain vulnerable due to previous deluges.
National Weather Service Houston-Galveston meteorologists reported that a slight risk of excessive rainfall covers Southeast Texas on Thursday, with precipitation chances reaching 70 percent during the day before dropping to 60 percent at night.
"We are anticipating that they'll keep pushing into the area with an upper level low gradually approaching from the west going into the weekend," Houston forecasters wrote in their outlook.
The weather service noted that while a marginal risk of excessive rainfall is forecast for Friday, the threat rises back to a slight risk on Saturday as shower and thunderstorm activity intensifies.
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"Some of these storms may be strong at times carrying the potential for strong winds," Houston forecasters wrote.
Meteorologists warned that early precipitation will worsen conditions as the storm system lingers over consecutive days.
"Keep in mind that these initial rounds of rainfall are priming the soils for the later rounds of rainfall," Houston forecasters wrote.
The regional weather office indicated that the geographic scope of the emergency advisories could increase depending on how the atmospheric system develops over the next few days.
"Saturated soils lead to quicker runoff, which brings the potential for flash flooding...
There is potential for the Flood Watch to be expanded in area going into the weekend," Houston forecasters wrote.
Space City Weather also elevated its local response by issuing a Stage 2 flood alert on Wednesday, noting that the multi-day duration of the oncoming system makes the weather pattern highly unusual for the metropolitan area.
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"Only rarely have we seen periods of several days of moderate to heavy rainfall as we are now experiencing," Eric Berger with Space City Weather wrote in his Wednesday outlook.
