The U. S.
Geological Survey warned on Friday, May 22, 2026, that Hawaii's Kilauea volcano is showing signs of elevated unrest, suggesting a new eruptive episode could begin over the Memorial Day holiday weekend.
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According to the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, the volcano is exhibiting imminent activity as summit inflation—the physical swelling of the ground surface at the peak—gets underway.
Model forecasts indicate that episode 48 of the current eruption series will commence between Sunday and Tuesday, prompting the USGS to issue a code yellow alert.
A glow remains visible from both eruptive vents in the Halemaʻumaʻu crater, and low-level seismic tremors persist despite a temporary pause in active eruption.
"The rapid return of inflationary tilt and glow from both Halemaʻumaʻu eruptive vents indicates that another lava fountaining episode is likely," said the USGS.
Geologists noted that dozens of eruptions have occurred since the current series started in December 2024, with some past episodes sending lava fountains up to 1,500 feet into the air.
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The preceding 47th episode began at 3:27 p. m.
HST on May 14 and ended abruptly nine hours later, releasing hot glassy volcanic fragments known as tephra within Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park.
That eruption also generated fine ash and Pele's hair, which fell outside park boundaries, while lava fountains reached a maximum height of 650 feet.
USGS scientists have observed low-density tephra from these recent events creating short-lived atmospheric phenomena above the crater floor.
"Since the ongoing eruption began in December of 2024, there has been little overall change in the amount of pressurization of the magma chambers beneath Kīlauea summit," said the USGS in an FAQ report.
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Scientists stated that the frequent activity is driven by magma chambers refilling quickly, creating a state of equilibrium that will likely sustain this pattern unless a stronger eruption occurs.
