The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecast a below-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2026.
During a press conference on Thursday, the agency predicted eight to 14 named storms between June 1 and November 30.
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Federal forecasters estimated a 55% chance of a below-normal season in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.
Officials also estimated a 35% probability of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of an above-normal season.
According to the agency, three to six of the projected named storms are expected to become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes reaching Category 3, 4, or 5 status.
An average season typically generates 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, peaking between mid-August and mid-October.
"Even though we’re expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it’s very important to understand that it only takes one," said Neil Jacobs, NOAA administrator.
Jacobs noted that Category 5 hurricanes have previously made landfall during below-average seasons. He attributed the overall 2026 outlook primarily to atmospheric patterns in the Pacific.
"What’s driving this forecast is largely an El Niño event," said Jacobs.
The National Weather Service reported an 82% probability of El Niño developing by July, up from 61%.
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This climate pattern suppresses Atlantic storm formation through rising air in the tropical Pacific and sinking air over the Atlantic.
Slightly warmer equatorial sea temperatures are currently mitigating some of these limiting effects.
Conversely, NOAA projected a 70% chance of above-normal activity for the Pacific basin, where the season began on May 15.
The agency expects 15 to 22 named storms, nine to 14 hurricanes, and five to nine major hurricanes in the eastern Pacific, alongside five to 13 tropical cyclones in the central Pacific.
In Honolulu, Hawaii, local officials prepared for the active Pacific season as Governor Josh Green signed a proclamation establishing June as Hurricane Awareness Month.
"Very busy year," said John Bravender, NOAA meteorologist.
The central Pacific outlook of five to 13 tropical cyclones contrasts sharply with the preceding year.
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According to NOAA records, the previous hurricane season marked the first time in a decade that no hurricanes made landfall in the United States, despite producing 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.
