Forecasters expect a below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season as a strong El Nino pattern develops, potentially suppressing storm activity.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release its official outlook on Thursday, May 21, amid predictions of reduced tropical cyclone formation.
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El Nino's Suppressing Effect
A rapidly developing El Nino in the equatorial Pacific could become one of the strongest in 140 years, increasing vertical wind shear across the Caribbean and Atlantic.
University of Miami associate scientist Andy Hazelton explained that El Nino typically leads to stronger upper-level wind shear and sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, reducing hurricane numbers, especially in the Caribbean.
NOAA lead seasonal forecaster Matthew Rosencrans noted that El Nino years often shift primary tropical threats to the eastern Pacific.
Despite the suppressing effect, near-record high ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico could counter El Nino's impact and fuel localized storm intensification.
Private forecasters have analyzed conditions ahead of the federal reveal.
Colorado State University predicts six hurricanes, including two major ones, while WRAL projects 11 to 14 named storms, five to seven hurricanes, and two to three major hurricanes.
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A typical year averages 14 tropical storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes based on historical data.
Coastal Risk Remains
Louisiana State Climatologist Jay Grymes presented consensus forecasts from ten universities, stressing that a lower storm count does not eliminate coastal risk.
Grymes compared disrupted storm structure to a leaning chimney that reduces efficiency, warning that rapid intensification trends in the Gulf require constant vigilance.
He cautioned residents against complacency following a quiet 2025 season in Louisiana, noting that public awareness often fades after consecutive quiet seasons.
The official federal outlook will be delivered during an 11 a. m.
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ET news conference at the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Florida, where officials will also detail public preparedness strategies.
