Jason Bateman's Emmy nomination prospects have improved for two television series, according to Gold Derby prediction data updated on May 20, 2026.
The actor gained 4% in the lead actor category for Netflix's noir thriller "Black Rabbit" and 11% in the supporting actor category for HBO's dark comedy "DTF St. Louis."
>>> Steven Spielberg Crafts 20-Minute Finale for Sci-Fi Film Disclosure Day
Bateman is also eligible for nominations as a director for "Black Rabbit" and as a producer for both limited series, potentially earning up to five nominations across the two projects.
He previously won his first Emmy in 2019 for directing an episode of "Ozark" and has 13 additional nominations for "Arrested Development," "Ozark," and "The Outsider."
Current Odds and Competition
For his role as Vince Friedken in "Black Rabbit," Bateman holds a 70% chance of a nomination, placing him just outside the projected Best Movie/Limited Actor lineup.
Front-runners in that category include Oscar Isaac for "Beef" at 97%, Matthew Rhys for "The Beast in Me" at 96%, Richard Gadd for "Half Man" at 91%, Paul Anthony Kelly for "Love Story" at 84%, and Charlie Hunnam for "Monster: The Ed Gein Story" at 81%.
>>> Aubry Bracco Wins Survivor 50, Claims Record $2 Million Prize
In the Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actor category for "DTF St. Louis," Bateman has a 58% chance for his portrayal of weatherman Clark Forrest, placing him seventh.
The six contenders ahead of him are Charles Melton for "Beef" at 97%, Jamie Bell for "Half Man" at 94%, Alessandro Nivola for "Love Story" at 88%, Jonathan Banks for "The Beast in Me" at 87%, Troy Kotsur for "Black Rabbit" at 77%, and Jake Lacy for "All Her Fault" at 61%.
Historical data from the past decade shows double-nominated actors often win at least one award, with examples including Ann Dowd in 2017, Riz Ahmed in 2017, Julia Garner in 2022, and Julianne Nicholson in 2025.
However, some performers like Laurie Metcalf in 2016, Pedro Pascal in 2023, and Catherine O'Hara in 2025 lost all their bids during multiple-nomination years.
>>> Georgie & Mandy Finale Pays Tribute to Costume Supervisor Phyllis Gilliam
The official nominations for the 2026 Emmy Awards are scheduled to be announced on July 8.
