The Trump administration extended the US waiver on Russian crude and oil products on May 18, giving Asian refiners a major boost in mid-May.

This second 30-day extension offers critical relief to New Delhi by protecting its crude supply and keeping Indian refineries operational during severe Gulf disruptions.

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The initial waiver was implemented on March 12 as an emergency measure to counter shortages caused by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.

India successfully requested the extension to maintain access to Russian crude, which has become vital to the country's energy balance.

India's Reliance on Russian Crude

During March and April, India stood as the primary buyer of seaborne Russian crude, importing 2.08 million b/d and 1.7 million b/d respectively.

These volumes represented approximately half of the 4.5 million b/d in total crude imports that India averaged over the two-month period.

Projections for May indicate that India is on track to receive approximately 2.1 million b/d of Russian crude shipments.

India's daily consumption ranges between 5.5 million and 6 million b/d, and its crude oil stocks are reaching critical lows.

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Stockpiles dropped from 106 million barrels in February to 90 million barrels by April.

Contrasting Stockpiles in China and India

China experienced less impact from the waiver due to lower sensitivity to US sanctions and a massive domestic inventory.

Chinese consumers purchased 1.8 million b/d of Russian seaborne crude in March and 1.4 million b/d in April.

Following the Gulf conflict and the Hormuz closure, Chinese stockpiles increased from 1.22 billion barrels in March to 1.23 billion barrels.

This inventory allows China to sustain its large domestic consumption of 14 million to 15 million b/d for several months.

Conversely, India faces low safety margins, with stockpiles dropping from 106 million barrels in February to 90 million barrels by April.

With daily consumption levels ranging between 5.5 million and 6 million b/d, Indian crude oil stocks are reaching critical lows.

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Gulf Supply Drops and Global Sourcing

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused India to lose over one-third of its typical February monthly oil supply from Gulf nations.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the only Gulf suppliers utilizing bypass pipelines, but their export volumes remain insufficient for India's requirements.

Saudi exports to India declined from 1.03 million b/d in February to 670,000 b/d in April.

The UAE maintained its export levels between 550,000 b/d and 600,000 b/d over the past two months but lacks capacity for further increases.

To fulfill refinery requirements, India has looked globally for medium-sour crude grades, which became highly scarce after the Hormuz blockage.

As a result, India doubled its imports from Latin America in April, taking 285,000 b/d from Venezuela and 275,000 b/d from Brazil.

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Nigeria also boosted its exports in April, though its lighter crude grades generally do not match the specific processing needs of Indian refineries.