Financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald has increased its 12-month price target for USA Rare Earth (USAR) from $30 to $35 per share, maintaining an Overweight rating.

Analysts Derek Soderberg and Drew Nordquist highlighted several catalysts driving the optimistic outlook.

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The company recently achieved a key operational milestone at its manufacturing plant in Stillwater, Oklahoma.

Phase 1a became operational in March, positioning USAR to begin its first commercial deliveries in the second quarter of 2026.

The facility currently has an initial production capacity of 600 metric tons per year.

Full operating efficiency is expected by the end of December, with phase 1b expansion targeting a doubling of capacity to 1,200 metric tons by the first quarter of 2027.

Revenue Forecasts Double

Following these developments, Cantor Fitzgerald sharply revised its financial estimates. Revenue expectations for 2026 doubled from $40.4 million to $80.8 million.

Projections for 2027 also saw a significant upward revision, climbing from $197.2 million to $453.3 million.

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The analysts noted they will closely monitor the learning curve of the magnet manufacturing process.

Key focus areas include yield optimization, facility throughput, and machine performance as operations scale to industrial levels.

Serra Verde Acquisition Boosts Outlook

The updated valuation incorporates the anticipated performance of Serra Verde, a Brazilian mining firm that USAR is acquiring.

The deal is scheduled to close in the third quarter, with its value rising from $2.8 billion to approximately $3.64 billion due to recent equity market appreciation.

Serra Verde is one of the few large-scale suppliers of heavy rare-earth minerals outside China.

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The asset is critical for Western strategies aiming to reduce dependency on East Asian supply chains.

USAR projects that Serra Verde will generate an annualized run-rate EBITDA between $550 million and $650 million by the end of 2027.

The combined entity targets an annualized EBITDA of roughly $1.8 billion by 2030.

Meanwhile, USAR's UK-based subsidiary Less Common Metals (LCM) achieved a technical milestone in April.

The unit completed its first industrial pour of yttrium metal, achieving a purity level between 99% and 99.5%.

This yttrium metal is a critical component for thermal barrier coatings used in aerospace engineering.

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LCM is building infrastructure to secure 3,000 metric tons per year of total metal-processing and alloy manufacturing capacity by the end of December.